The Jammu and Kashmir election results have set the stage for the NC-INC-led coalition to form the government after NC turned out to be the single largest party in the region. The different political actors that emerged in these elections could not break the vote share and fracture the mandate. With more powers being transferred to L-G, the autonomy with the elected government remains a question yet to be answered.
The results for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Elections were out on 8 October, and the National Conference (NC), led by party deputy, Omar Abdullah, is set to form a government with the Indian National Congress (INC) after winning 42 seats out of the 90 legislative seats.
The whole fiasco that presented itself before the polling started – gave away that the elections won’t be as predictable as one might think. The comeback of Engineer Rashid just days before the elections or the re-emergence of Jamaat-e-Islami into politics by fielding independent candidates – but, nothing could divide the votes and fracture the election results in the Valley. Engineer Rashid, who had won the Baramulla parliamentary seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha election against political colossus Omar Abdullah and the People’s Conference’s Sajad Lone while detained in Tihar Jail, as predicted, was set to break NC’s dominance in the assembly elections. However, the results said otherwise. Rashid failed to make a mark, and his party could only secure the Langate seat in North Kashmir with a narrow margin of 1,602 votes. Rashid’s downfall is symptomatic of a deep fear of the BJP’s entry in the Valley – rumours of his possible tie-up with Modi-Shah, his hesitancy to openly deny any future alliances with the centre and doubts about the reasons for his timely bail – all created an illusion that Delhi’s machinations were playing a role.
“People have supported us more than our expectations. Now our efforts will be to prove that we are worth these votes,” said Omar Abdullah, in Srinagar.
Despite the presence of different political actors, NC emerged as the single largest party in the region. This outcome indicates the clear conscience of the people of the region. The People’s Democratic Party only secured three seats, a drastic fall from 28 seats it bagged in the 2014 election, and rightfully so. With the betrayal of a sudden coalition with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the past and the anger of the abrogation still fresh in the minds, the PDP had lost its footing in the region. Also, Mufti’s flippant “toffee and milk” remark still remains fresh in the minds of voters – who cast the party as unreliable. Also, the departure of the senior leaders, with significant following and hollowing out of the party cadre in the last five years, did not do any good to the party.
So why did all the different regional-based parties fail to secure any votes in the Valley? The people of Kashmir suspected, as per the popular opinion, that the re-emergence of jailed candidates and banned political outfits is just a set-up to fracture the election mandate and help the BJP ally with the fractional votes. The presence of so many political factors felt too engineered to be natural. However, the votes in favour of the Omar Abdullah-led NC do not come from a place of love for the party but to keep away the presence of the BJP from the valley that stripped Kashmir of its special status.
“When you hate someone and still have to vote for them because there is no other choice. That’s the hell we live in.” commented a voter on social media
Jammu stayed constant with its love for the saffron. The BJP won 29 seats in the Jammu division, increasing its tally from 25 seats in the 2014 elections. It’s also believed that the NC-INC alliance could be accused of denying Jammu credible representation. And the promise made by Omar Abdullah to pass a resolution against the revocation of Article 370 can’t really be fulfilled with Congress as part of the coalition. However, people would expect him to pitch for the restoration of statehood.
After the revocation of Article 370, the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly’s law-making powers, once it is reconstituted, are notably limited. Under the rules, the Assembly can legislate on matters within the State List, except those related to police and public order. These two crucial areas fall under the jurisdiction of the central government and the Lieutenant Governor (L-G). The subjects that fall under the Concurrent list will be authorised by the Union Government along with the Assembly, thus further restricting the powers of the assembly.
Omar Abdullah, in a recent post on X, claimed that the powers of the Chief Minister were being curtailed and transferred to L-G to maintain a hold on the valley and further disempower the incoming elected government. On social media, jibes have been made regarding the NC victory, referring to the Assembly as a municipal corporation.
“The BJP has clearly accepted defeat in J&K. Why else would the Chief Secretary be assigned the duty to change the transaction of business rules of the government to curtail the powers of the Chief minister / elected government and assign the same to the LG? This information has come to me from within the Secretariat. Officers would be well advised to resist any pressure to further disempower the incoming elected government.”
The Ministry of Home Affairs amended the Transaction of Business Rules on July 13, 2024. This amendment has strengthened the role of L-G even more, raising the serious question of how much autonomy an elected government will have if statehood is restored.
While the holding of these elections seemed like a promising development, the truth is not so optimistic. The Indian administration may boast of a total voter turnout of 63 per cent; the reality is that most of Kashmir voted out of protest – AIP’s Sheikh Rashid fought the Lok Sabha election with the phrase – Tihar ka badla, vote se. The election presented an opportunity to express their disapproval of India’s policies. Opposed to the BJP, responsible for the elimination of Kashmir’s autonomy, by casting their votes for other parties and candidates, Kashmiris have demonstrated that they outright reject the BJP and the plan to disenfranchise them in their own homeland.
Read Also: A decade later: J&K assembly elections
Image Credits: Hindustan Times
Reeba Khan
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