Jammu and Kashmir’s upcoming Assembly elections are marked by unpredictability, uncertainty, and a whole lot of curiosity. When you think you have seen it all, the Kashmiri politics shift paradigms and the plot widens. With key players like Engineer Rashid stirring up the region’s volatile political landscape – the shifting alliances and the reemergence of Jamaat-e-Islami mark that anything is possible and nothing can be predicted.
After a decade, Jammu and Kashmir is set for its assembly elections, and the anxiety and betrayal of the past looming heavy. The political landscape of the region has gone through immeasurable changes after the abrogation of Article 370. Without statehood and special status, what once used to be once the most empowered assembly has been reduced to a mere puppet where the lieutenant governor carries unprecedented power and influence. Omar Abdullah, the former chief minister, says the Jammu and Kashmir assembly without statehood will be, “the most disempowered (of) assemblies.” While Mehbooba Mufti, who has fielded her daughter, Iltija Mufti, from South Kashmir’s Bijbehara for her electoral debut, says that the assembly will be “less powerful than a municipality.”
History has a way to repeat itself, and many in Kashmir are hoping for it to not happen. In the 2014 Assembly Elections, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won 28 seats out of 87 on the precedent of keeping the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from entering the valley. However, in a turn of events, the PDP announced an alliance with BJP to form the government, which left the people of Kashmir betrayed and deceived. After what are called the darkest days of PDP-BJP alliance rule in Kashmir, which led to the unprecedented civilian killings and unrest in the valley; in June 2018, BJP pulled out of its coalition government with PDP, Mehbooba Mufti resigned, and Governor’s rule was imposed again. 10 years later, the Omar Abdullah-led National Conference (NC) is seeking votes with the same rhetoric – keep the BJP out.
Given the unpredictability of Kashmiri electoral politics, nothing can be certain. After the parliamentary elections, if the results were any indication that the NC might emerge as the single-largest party in Kashmir in the upcoming assembly elections, the release of Sheikh Abdul Rashid also known as Engineer Rashid on bail after five years in Tihar Jail shaken up electoral preferences. And Engineer Rashid is no average candidate. He won against former chief minister Omar Abdullah in the parliamentary elections 2024 with a staggering two lakh votes while being incarcerated. Being a popular separatist leader, his campaigns resonate with the common people. His theatrical and confrontational politics have been a crowd-puller, and the youth of Kashmir see him as the only candidate brave enough to say out loud what other candidates are afraid of.
“Solution of Kashmir issue lies in asking the people on both sides of the LOC [line of control] about their aspirations,” said Engineer Rashid in Pulwama.
Statements like these grab attention and deeply resonate with the people who for long have felt unheard.
“On his own, he is more outspoken against Delhi than the entire leadership of mainstream parties in Kashmir. Both the National Conference and the Peoples Democratic Party have a history of working closely with the BJP,” said a student from Srinagar while talking to Rising Kashmir.
“In Kashmir, mainstream politics has always represented Delhi, while the separatists represented the ground sentiment of the people. Rashid was someone who would give expression to issues felt by the people despite being in the mainstream. At times, he would cause a lot of discomfort to the parties in power over what he called their surrender of Kashmir’s interests to New Delhi,” said another youth in Srinagar.
However, even with what seems like popular support for Engineer Rashid, the elections are unlikely to be easy for him and his party. One section of the crowd has been pointing fingers at Rashid for being a mere pawn and a proxy of BJP, designed to split the votes and let BJP in through the cracks. Omar Abdullah, while addressing the issue, stated that Rashid is receiving special treatment and has been released only to manipulate Kashmiris.
“Why only Engineer Rashid? Why is he receiving special treatment? What about Yasin Malik and Shabir Shah, who are also imprisoned under the same law?”
According to Abdullah, Rashid’s bail is a strategic move to sway votes and aid the BJP in gaining control of the assembly, further solidifying the decisions made on August 5, 2019.
“I feel sorry for the people of Baramulla. This bail is not to serve the people of North Kashmir but to get votes. After polls, Er Rashid will be back in Tihar… . My only appeal is to not allow the BJP’s designs to succeed. If people want a BJP government in Jammu and Kashmir, then they should support the AIP, PCP, and Apni Party.”
Sarjan Ahmad Wagay, popularly known as Sarjan Barkati, a hardline cleric who is currently in jail, is all set to contest from the Ganderbal seat against National Conference Vice President Omar Abdullah. Barkati had earlier filed a nomination from the Zainapora assembly seat in Shopian, South Kashmir. But his nomination papers were rejected on September 4. Even though his nomination from Shopian was rejected due to the absence of an oath certificate that was to be duly signed by the jail authorities, some observers believe it was done to further divide the votes by accepting the nomination from the Ganderbal seat.
Engineer Rashid, charged under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act in a terror funding case being released just days before the elections and getting the ticket to contest in the assembly elections openly while other separatist leaders, journalists, and human rights activists are yet to see the light of day, does raise fingers. Why would Delhi’s administration allow for a separatist leader backed with popular sentiment, such “freedom” in the “new” Kashmir? While these doubts regarding Rashid’s release continue to emanate, the increasing number of independent candidates and reemergence of groups in the political landscape have further generated curiosity regarding the effects on the political system in the region.
Jamaat-e-Islami, a banned political and religious group, has returned to politics after 37 years and is backing several independent candidates. The banned organisation which once opposed the elections in the valley, contesting and swearing by the Indian Constitution, is something that comes as a surprise. Mehbooba Mufti lost footing in the political terrain after the failure of the PDP government during its alliance with the BJP. Further, there is palpable anger among the voters against Mehbooba Mufti’s public statements in 2016, in which she blamed civilians for protests. Fielding her daughter, Iltija Mufti, might have been a great strategic move; however, what transpired during the PDP coalition government might make it hard to gain popular support for these elections.
While Kashmir is stumbling through the unpredictability, Jammu is a bit more consistent. The people of Jammu seem content and comfortable sticking to the same, ultra-nationalist rhetoric of the BJP. Their politics, with no grey areas and too much of saffron, is a pretty straightforward affair. With the politicians gambling with words and an increased number of new players in the circus that Kashmiri politics is, the outcome of it all remains uncertain. However, what else remains uncertain is the future of Kashmir, at the hands of those who play for themselves.
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Image Credits: 1. Anis Wani (@ anis__wani instagram)
Reeba Khan
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